The focus of the meeting was on timing the purchase of dividend stock to improve over all returns. Part of the input to the discussion was the research carried out by Lincoln Industries (StockDoctor) and widely reported in the financial press, often under a heading of “Dividend investors earn a free kick”. One such article from The Age Newspaper, expands the topic to other relevant areas.
To focus of the practical aspects of “dividend Timing”, a list of ex-dividend dates over a 12 month period were available for the meeting to active WASINT participants, along with other fundamental financial company information relevant to dividends.
The outcomes of the November meeting was that a high proportion of those stocks with a Hull ROAR score of 50% or more had a financial health of satisfactory or better within the StockDoctor classification. Thus it was concluded that these criteria or fundamental data equivalents provide a good starting point for potentially high yielding stocks.
For “10 Bagger Stocks” (those increasing in value by 10 fold in an undefined time period) it was concluded that stocks in the bio-medical or resource exploration areas had more potential. The probability of success in identifying those stocks with the most potential is increased by detailed investigation of the product or exploration area of the company.
The main topic of the October meeting was On-line or email news letter investment sites which members have personally found to be useful. The filter was that the sites need to be available indefinitely without payment of a fee and be helpful to the member outlining how they found the site (or news letter) to be beneficial.
The Melbourne Trading and Investment Seminary Expo (help immediately prior to the WASINT meeting) was also discussed. A number of members attending the Expo and heard presentation from regular public speakers such as Louise Bedford, Alan Hull, Chris Caton, Marcus Padley, Julia Lee, Roger Montgomery and Ellio D'Amato. Principal points from these presentations were discussed.
The September meeting considered the comparison of the ASX sector indices and found variations in the performance of the sectors. Techniques were considered for buying after an upward trend from a low or the alternative of buying after reaching a new high for a defined period. Both involved definition of periods for the low and subsequent up trend or the period for the new high. Both were considered better approximations to support and resistance lines than a cross of moving averages in sideways moving markets. FCharts and Stockdoctor charting packages were used at the meeting.
Visual Support and Resistance Lines are a common means of considering buy and sell points for stocks. Their limitation is that they require visual examination of price graphs and are subject to personal interpretation. The meeting considered indicator formula which may be used to replicate the behaviour of visual support and resistance lines. Specifically, the visual procedures of Dale Gillham from his April, 2012, ASX Podcast, "How to preserve capital and profit from the sharemarket", to indicator formula were considered. It was concluded that using a cross of moving averages did not represent the variation that was observed in support and resistance lines. Further in a market that is moving sideways as moving averages are “lagging” indicators, in general they do not form the basis for successful investment.
This meeting discussed recent papers and presentations on Value Investing principles from John Abernethy of the Clime Group and from Roger Montgomery, previous of Clime. Both put forward stocks as examples and the reasons for their selection were discussed.
As a comparison, a recent paper by Carr with different stocks sectors in different parts of the stock economic cycle and one by Guppy on a detailed technical analysis of the Gold index was also considered.
This meeting discussed possible strategies for a volatile share market. One of these strategies is to use trade testing as offered by charting package such as FCPro and similar charting packages to obtain comparative results. Possible technical parameters that are more relevant in volatile markets were considered.
With the end of the financial year upon us, announcements from the recent Australian Budget and other factors were discussed.
This meeting extended the trade testing of share invest schemes schemes from the April meeting with the charting package FCPro to comparative performance. As many variables and technical parameters are possible, the emphasis was on understanding the impact of variation of what might be considered the base parameters.
The use of three portfolio managers (Stockdoctor, Quicken and Excel Spreadsheets) were presented by regular users of these programs. Each indicated they could provide further advise upon request
The theme of diversification from the March meeting was continued. The characteristics of Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts (A-REITS) were considered. As a category, on a number of occasions in the last 10 years, these have been among the top performing Australian investment type. The meeting focused on the performance of individual ASX listed A-REITS in considering their characteristics as pointers for their investment potential.
Considerations from the current ASX reporting season were the focal point of discussions at the meeting. Charts and outcomes from major commentators were considered in developing possible responses to the outcomes. The significant short term impact of both good and bad reports, based on market expectations was discussed. Several examples from the reporting season were considered.
Three topics were considered.
1) Introduction to Bonds
2) Chandlestick Charts
3) Momentum Growth Stocks for a WASINT discussion portfolio
Bonds are often considered as a safe haven in turbulent financial times, but a number of factors requiring investigating in considering the “safety factor” and potential yield of a bond were discussed. Topic 2 was a discussion of books on Chandlestick Charting. A WASINT “Discussion portfolio” was developed and is referenced in later meetings.